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China’s economic recovery gathers momentum on rebound in retail sales

Bloomberg/Beijing

Wednesday، 16 September 2020 12:25 AM

China’s economic recovery sped up in August, led by an acceleration in industrial output and the first growth in retail sales data since Covid-19 hit early in the year.
Retail sales gained 0.5% in August from a year earlier, while industrial production rose 5.6% in the period, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday. In the first eight months of the year, industrial production advanced 0.4% compared to the same period in 2019, while retail sales slid 8.6% and fixed-asset investment was 0.3% lower.
The data show the world’s second-largest economy in recovery from the first-quarter’s Covid-19 slump, in stark contrast to nations still struggling with virus outbreaks, lockdowns and economic contraction.
In China, fiscal stimulus and surprisingly strong exports first boosted industrial output, and the return to growth in retail spending now shows private demand is also starting to claw back the losses earlier in the year.
China’s new Covid-19 cases dwindled toward double figures a day in August and the government continued lowering social distancing restrictions. Consumers responded to that success, with retail sales of goods up 1.5% from a year earlier, while spending on catering and restaurants shrank at a slower pace.
“If China continues to control the virus as it did in the past few months, it will mean a stable domestic environment for a steady recovery for the rest of this year,” said Betty Wang, senior economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd in Hong Kong.
The gradual loosening of restrictions on services like movies may also provide a boost to consumer spending. China allowed theatres in areas with low virus risk to resume operations from July 20, though with limits.
Box office revenue recovered in late August to about 90% of the level seen in the same period last year, according to the statistics bureau, and Morgan Stanley estimates box office revenues will normalise in the fourth quarter.
The increasingly strong recovery will be welcome news for the central bank, which has been trying to stimulate the economy without flooding financial markets with money. The People’s Bank of China added liquidity to markets earlier yesterday to help banks facing a cash squeeze, but kept the interest rate the same.
This data “reduced the need for interest rate and RRR cuts. For now, the PBoC will focus on managing liquidity in order to keep short-term interest rates anchored at the policy rates,” said Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA.
The housing market has also continued to boom, despite the government tightening property rules. Home-price growth accelerated in August after a brief slowdown the previous month, indicating the curbs have done little to damp buyer enthusiasm. Funding for property rose 3% in the first eight months.
Investment by state-owned firms slowed to 3.2% growth over the same period, while spending by private firms shrank 2.8%, the best result all year.
“China’s economy will continue to pick up but the unstable recovery in global demand due to renewed virus flare-ups in many parts of the world means China’s recovery will depend more heavily on domestic growth drivers.
“A Chinese economy on steadier footing relative to earlier this year should allow the government to focus on policy implementation to squeeze the most out of a range of measures already in place.” But “the door remains open” for the PBoC to guide interest rates incrementally lower by the year-end”, says  Chang Shu, chief Asia economist at Bloomberg.
“China’s economy has recovered steadily in August” as production and economic activities increase, the statistics bureau said in a statement. “There’s still a pressing need to stabilise jobs, businesses and people’s livelihood and we need to strengthen the basis for a continued economic rebound.”
The government has recently unveiled a new plan which aims to boost domestic consumption and also make more critical technology at home amid rising geopolitical tensions and the possibility of a resurgence in the coronavirus.
While the surveyed unemployment rate declined to 5.6%, an unemployment indicator that covers mainly college graduates rose 5.4 percentage points in the month. That would usually fall at this time of year.
China is beginning to have real growth, but it’s still far from the levels seen after the global financial crisis, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz said in an online event Tuesday morning before the August data was released. “Those numbers are nowhere near enough to fuel a global recovery,” he said.

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